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And with layoffs still near record lows, workers have little reason to hold off on making purchases, even if it means using a credit card — an increasingly pricey option as interest rates drift higher. One beneficiary of those open pocketbooks is Amanda McClements, who owns a home goods store in Washington, D.C., called Salt & Sundry. Sales are up about 15 percent from last year and have finally eclipsed 2019 levels. “People can’t get enough candles; that continues to be our top seller,” Ms. McClements said. “We’ve been experiencing a really uneven recovery,” she said.
Persons: “ There’s, , Yelena Shulyatyeva, Amanda McClements, can’t, Ms, McClements, hadn’t, “ We’ve Organizations: BNP, , Washington , D.C Locations: Washington ,
While the anticipated robust growth pace notched last quarter is probably not sustainable, it would demonstrate the economy's resilience despite aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP likely increased at a 4.3% annualized rate last quarter, which would be the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2021. Others are not too concerned, noting the labor market continues to churn out jobs at a solid clip. Growth last quarter was also seen lifted by a smaller trade deficit, thanks to strong exports and increased inventory investment. But the labor dispute, which is costing auto makers millions of dollars per week, could weigh on growth in the fourth quarter.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Joe Biden's, Sal Guatieri, Luke Tilley, it's, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Brian Bethune, Lucia Mutikani, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Business, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, BMO Capital Markets, Consumer, Wilmington Trust, Labor, Labor Department, U.S, Treasury, Financial, Group's, BNP, Boston College, Thomson Locations: Brooklyn , New York City, U.S, Toronto, American, Wilmington, Philadelphia, New York
Slower, still strong US job growth expected in June
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The economy needs to create 70,000-100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. A Conference Board survey last month showed consumers' perceptions of the labor market more upbeat in June relative to May. But first-time applications for unemployment benefits jumped to a 20-month high during the week that the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls count. "They are going to opt to cut hours worked, that is something we need to pay very close attention to, rather than the net gain in nonfarm payrolls." The slowdown in wage growth is being driven by the loss of high-paying technology and finance jobs among others.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Sung Won Sohn, Payrolls, Ryan Sweet, Milton Ezrati, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve, U.S, Loyola Marymount University, Institute for Supply, Board, Oxford Economics, West Chester Pennsylvania, BNP, Thomson Locations: y WASHINGTON, Los Angeles, payrolls, West Chester, nonfarm, New York
The nation witnessed two years of red-hot “revenge spending,” the name economists and corporate executives gave to a spike in recreational spending that followed coronavirus lockdowns. As demand rose, so did prices for airfares, hotels and other sought-after services. Hotel prices have recently climbed much more slowly on a year-over-year basis, and airfares are flatlining. If that trend continues this summer, it could contribute to a slowdown in overall services inflation, something the Fed has been watching and waiting for. “We see some slowing in so-called revenge categories,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas.
Persons: coronavirus, , Yelena Shulyatyeva Organizations: BNP Paribas
There are uncertainties," Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Friday. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin struck a similar note last week. "When you raise rates there's always the risk of the economy softening faster than it might have otherwise. "People will continue to spend as long as they get paid," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist with BNP Paribas. It will, but only at the point at which they stop getting paid" because of a slowing economy and rising unemployment.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with BofA's Ethan Harris and BNP Paribas' Yelena ShulyatyevaEthan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Global Research and Yelena Shulyatyeva, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the market response to the SVB hearing, the regulatory response to the bank crisis, and credit turmoil replacing interest rate hikes.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation looks hard to pull down amid fast wage growth, says BNP's Yelena ShulyatyevaEthan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Global Research and Yelena Shulyatyeva, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the market response to the SVB hearing, the regulatory response to the bank crisis, and credit turmoil replacing interest rate hikes.
"It's going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%." She is among the minority of Fed policymakers who back in December thought they would need to lift the policy rate to 5.4% to stop inflation, while most believed 5.1% would suffice. Similarly none of the other Fed policymakers who spoke Friday, including the normally hawkish Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, focused on the fresh inflation data to argue for a more muscular Fed response, though all continued to signal more rate hikes would be required. And traders largely erased what had been consistent bets on Fed rate cuts towards the end of the year, pricing in a year-end Fed policy rate of 5.26%. "It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas.
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